2010年4月17日星期六

年輕人不要為面子買樓

身邊不少師兄、師姐早已畢業,他們一般已有穩定的工作,願望就是盡快買樓。尤其是男仔,好多師兄都覺得如果自己買到間樓,可以顯示為擁有一定的經濟實力,讓女朋友或者他們家人均顯得有「Face」,求婚都會變相容易一點。況且,倘若計畫結婚的話,遲早都會想有自己的安樂窩,所以點都會想買左樓先。


但是,如果想有自己的安樂窩,並不代表一定要買樓做業主,租樓也未嘗不是一個好選擇。我一直認為,買樓絕對是一般人最好的投資方法之一,但是買樓跟買股票一樣,除左受本身投資項目的質素影響外,時機也是非常重要的考慮因素。如果你碰巧在高位買樓,跟在股市高位摸頂買股毫無分別,好彩的話都起碼等3、5年先回到買入價,不好彩的話可能等足10年都見不到「家鄉」。我依稀記得97年時,嘉湖山莊賣到5千多元一呎,到了今天2010年,樓價距離當時高位依然有5成,當日於高位買樓的投資者真的欲哭無淚。因此,年輕人絕對不應該單憑「Face」、結婚等考慮而盲目不理市場環境去買樓。

不過,如果一般長輩如果聽到你選擇租樓而不買樓,他們通常第一個反應都是:「吓? 傻仔,租樓係等於幫人供樓,梗係買樓好過供樓啦!」實際上,他們這樣說也不無道理,倘若如果你選擇長租一世,租樓的確不化算,因為你30年不選擇買樓,你所付出的租金應該差不多等同一間樓。但是,如果你只是選擇短租3年左右,租樓又可能有「著數」,因為如果樓市跟股市一樣,都存在着周期性,假如現時價格太高,不妨等多一等,將買樓的時間放長一點,耐心等待調整才買。

總的來說,我並不是阻止各位年輕朋友上車置業,我只是希望提出買樓也是一種投資,耐心是投資市場裡最重要的東西,千萬不要盲目地入市。不過,如果你真是堅決要先買樓、後結婚,不妨先選擇買入一些較為平價的二手樓,因為現時差不多全部新樓均「豪宅化」,元朗新盤都要賣到成7、8千元一呎,千萬不要因為一個「新」字而買貴貨。

3 則留言:

PETER 說...

我認同"不要為面子買樓"。但這篇網認我有幾個論點絕不認同。

1. 買樓絕對是一般人最好的投資方法之一

- 買賣物業可以是投資, 但如果你跟租樓相比, 你買的物業就是"自住樓"。自住- 是必需品, 你是如何去等跌先黎住呢? 打過比喻, 200萬樓, 租8500-9000, 你3年付出的租金超過30萬, 哪麼我相信樓價要下降40萬以上, 你才"等"得有價值, 樓價只是下降20萬, 你都還是要輸10多千萬, 不跌反升, 你就會繼續等, 付出的租金就增加, 你要"等"至有賺就只有"等"至樓價下跌幅度超過你所付出的租金(租多3年租金付出就是接近70萬, 6年間樓價要下調40%以上, 以租待買才有so)。

(自住樓是可以有投資成份, 但極其量以供樓累積的財富/升值去換一間更優質的物業, 因為住是必需的!)

2. 碰巧在高位買樓,跟在股市高位摸頂買股毫無分別

- 無錯......好彩的話都起碼等3、5年先回到買入價,不好彩的話可能等足10年都見不到「家鄉」。但樓可以放租, 股票市場中買一百萬貨, 就是現金一百萬, 樓就可以只先付出首期(30%)其餘就由租客負責大部分, 哪怎會一樣呢?坦白說, 10年都見不到家鄉都不一定是虧了。

- 而文中以嘉湖山莊作例子, 我想說有點不公平。天水圍只有比十多年前更方便, 可是標籤化比十年前嚴重很多很多, "悲情城市"、"天水圍城"都是近幾年才有的term。更方便, 但反而更被標籤實在是萬中無一。

Larry 洪龍荃 說...

Peter:

感謝你的留言。

對於第一點,我是指出如果年輕人並不是急於自住,只是為了預備要結婚的話,不一定硬性規定自己一定先買樓。不過,你指出的問題確實有道理,我會再多加研究呢。

至於第二點,我認為買樓確實可以收租,不過如果你在天價時買入,相信也不是容易回到家鄉,我想指出時機的重要性。

Benjamin 說...

Dear Larry,

I stumbled upon your blog post and found this piece particularly interesting, as a property buyer myself.

I agree on your views regarding renting for the short-term vs buying immediately and having to bear the price risk of the flat, in fact I'd go as far as saying even buying for the long-run may not always be the savviest decision.

In economics we always have to weigh the opportunity cost of decisions, and it is no different from here. By paying the downpayment for an apartment and moving in yourself, one can view this as a financially equivalent act to a) purchasing an apartment with a downpayment and b) renting the said apartment to yourself. By doing this we can separate our investment decision and living decision.

Whether your apartment is a good investment would then depend on compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of the investment, factoring in the current market price plus annual rental payments (paid by yourself at market rates) minus interest, tax and other expenses. This CAGR number can be compared to other investments such as equities or any other form of tangible or non-tangible assets.

All in all this should boil down to the individual's investment alternatives. If an individual pays and lives in an apartment with 30% downpayment that could be let for 9k a month in the market, and ends up with an 8% CAGR, he would be worse off than if he instead spent the downpayment money on his stock portfolio that could have generated more than 8% and just rented an apartment in the market for 9k a month.

Of course this case is simplified as many differences can arise with leasing to tenants, tax differences, living cost increases etc. However I think many people don't account for these two numbers separately when deciding whether or not to buy a property and thus end up with an apartment eating up their monthly paycheck and becoming a liability instead of an asset.

Hope to see you again soon so you can share more of your views on this area!

Best Regards,
Benjamin Yu