2008年3月5日星期三

畢菲特指美國已陷衰退

Chinese Version

美國著名投資者畢菲特認為,美國經濟已經陷入衰退,雖然數字上仍未符合衰退的定義,即是經濟出現連續兩季負增長,但他已經見到屬下的零售店舖,業務全面顯著放緩。七十七歲的畢菲特又說,目前經濟情況,仍未惡化至73,74年的狀況,但聯儲局面對一個難以平衡的局面,就是要嘗試在刺激經濟的同時,避免觸發通脹。
雖然標普五百指數,由去年十月中到而家,已經回落一成六,但有股神之稱的畢菲特仍然認為,股價未算便宜,他又指定息工具市場,可能會發掘到更多投資機會。

English Version

Buffett says U.S. in recession, stocks not cheap
Billionaire investor sees slowdown in consumer spending
The Associated Press

updated 8:31 a.m. PT, Mon., March. 3, 2008
NEW YORK - Billionaire Warren Buffett said Monday that the U.S. economy is
essentially in a recession even if it hasn’t met the technical definition
of one yet.

Buffett said in an interview with cable network CNBC the reports he gets
from the retail businesses his holding company owns show a significant
slowdown in purchases.

The chairman and CEO of Omaha-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said millions of
people have also lost equity in their homes because home prices have
dropped.

“I would say, by any commonsense definition, we are in a recession,”
Buffett said on CNBC.

But Buffett said it’s not clear how far the recession will go because that
is difficult to predict.

The technical definition of a recession most economists use is two
consecutive quarters of negative growth in the nation’s gross domestic
product.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic
product increased at a low 0.6 percent pace in the quarter that ended Dec.
31.

In the July-September quarter, the economy grew at a brisk 4.9 percent.

Gross domestic product measures the value of all goods and services produced
in the United States and is the best barometer of the country’s economic
health.

A survey released last week by the National Association for Business
Economics showed that 45 percent of economists are predicting a recession in
2008.

But Buffett said the U.S. economy will be fine in the long run.

“Over time, my children are going to live better than I do, although they
don’t believe it,” Buffett said.

Buffett’s appearance on television came on the heels of his annual letter
to shareholders, which he released Friday along with Berkshire’s 2007
financial report.

In the letter, Buffett predicted that the insurance industry will see lower
underwriting profit margins in 2008 because premium prices are down, and the
industry’s luck will certainly change.

“It’s a certainty that insurance-industry profit margins, including ours,
will fall significantly in 2008,” he said. “Prices are down, and exposures
inexorably rise. Even if the U.S. has its third consecutive
catastrophe-light year, industry profit margins will probably shrink by 4
percentage points or so.

“If the winds roar or the earth trembles, results could be far worse.”

Buffett said Berkshire’s insurance group, which includes GEICO, reinsurance
giant General Re and several other firms, generated $2.2 billion net income
from insurance underwriting in 2007. That’s down from the previous year
when it posted a $2.5 billion underwriting profit.

When Berkshire’s shareholders aren’t worrying about insurance profits,
they’re likely fretting about who will run Berkshire after Buffett is gone.
The 77-year-old Buffett offered a few new clues in his annual letter and
during the CNBC interview.

To replace Buffett, Berkshire plans to split his job into three parts —
chief investment officer, chief executive officer and chairman.

Buffett wrote in his letter that over the past year he identified four
investment managers outside Berkshire who could take over managing the
company’s $75 billion stock portfolio and investing its $44.3 billion cash.

Buffett said on CNBC that none of the four CIO candidates is a woman and
that very few women applied for the job.

Buffett has previously said that Berkshire’s board had three outstanding
internal candidates for chief executive. And Buffett’s son, Howard, who
already serves on Berkshire’s board, will become chairman after Warren
Buffett’s death.

Buffett also said on CNBC:

That he doesn’t agree on everything with his favorite presidential
candidates, Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and he wouldn’t
want either one to succeed him as Berkshire’s chief capital allocater. “I
would certainly appoint either one of them to run a business, but running a
business is a little different than my job.”
On why the U.S. trade deficit is a long-term problem. “Over time, it’s
like eating an extra 100 calories at every meal. You don’t sit down at the
table and get up and everybody says ’My God, you’re fat.’ But if you keep
doing it over time, pretty soon they’ll say, ’My God, he’s gotten fat.”’

On stock bargains now: “Certainly, I find more things to look at now than I
did six months or a year ago. But I would say it’s changed more
dramatically in the fixed-income market than it has in the equity market.”
On the cause of the credit crisis: “The mistake was in lending unwisely.
There were a lot of dumb lending practices.”

Berkshire owns more than 60 subsidiaries including insurance, clothing,
furniture, natural gas, corporate jet and candy companies. Berkshire also
has major investments in such companies as Coca-Cola Co. and Wells Fargo &
Co.

c 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be
published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23445729/

後記:

美國進入衰退應該是不爭的事實,現在等待的只是經濟數據進一步的確認,股神已經為我們點出這點,但是全球經濟會遇到多少麻煩呢?

在地球的另一面,中國現在步向世界強國的道路,但是問題還有很多,最近推出的勞動法已經讓很多廠商面臨巨大的財政壓力,宏調等等經濟方案也不是簡單的一件事,今年的投資環境確實是需要投資者小心,不過,任何股市都一定存在波幅,今年行動一定不可以急,要謀定而後動。

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