2009年8月8日星期六

美樓價或見底 惟經濟仍難復甦

過去一個月,美國樓市陸續公佈利好數據, 包括5月標普/Case-Shiller綜合20大城市樓價指數上升0.5%,終止34個月來跌勢。而6月新屋銷售創下8年來最大按月升幅的11%,新屋庫存則跌至28.1萬間,至1998年2月來最低水平。

對於美國樓市,我傾向認為接近見底階段。雖然現時美國樓價較過往20年低位還超出15%,可能意味著還有進一步下跌空間,惟大部分業主現時已經處於負資產狀態,他們會傾向保持供款,如非情勢危逼的話,相信他們也不會把樓房賣出,某程度上支持了樓價。但是,樓價即使見底,也不代表樓價會立刻重拾升勢,較大可能是處於低位徘徊。

不過,隨著樓價站穩,經濟復甦是否就能被快速帶動呢? 對此,我並不持有樂觀的態度。畢竟現在就業及工資情況還不樂觀,失業問題還會困擾着美國,這將會持續影響美國人的消費信心及實際支出。而且經歷過金融海嘯後,大部分家庭紛紛去槓桿化,心理上難再負債,他們將竭力增加儲蓄以保障生活。

美國經濟復甦之路還遙遠,在通脹還未升溫的情況下,相信伯南克並不會胡亂改動寬鬆的貨幣政策; 而同時間,美國政府也會進一步開拓新就業職位及持續推出財政政策,如舊車換新車計劃 (Cash-for-clunkers),以救助疲弱的經濟,支持消費市場。

2 則留言:

another value investor 說...

"惟大部分業主現時已經處於負資產狀態,他們會傾向保持供款"

Americans are not Hong Kong people. Many of them will simply walk away from their underwater homes. One reason is due to differences in legal consequences: in US, if an individual default on its mortgage, his non-housing asset is not subject to claimants by the lender. Thus, if someone has a house worth $100k and mortgage worth $150k, plus $200k cash, he can just walk away and the lender can only repossess the $100k house to mitigate his $150k losses.

It's true that such a default would destroy the credit score of the borrower. But given many of the loans exceed the house's value by 25% or more, it makes the default option much more attractive.

Larry Hung 說...

another value investor,

感謝你的提示,我會小心查證一下資訊,然後再作出討論,謝謝!