2008年5月11日星期日

港股受外圍影響 情況並不樂觀

上個星期討論過成交的問題,因為恆指成交不足,所以不可以太過樂觀。不過,上週中段港股開始下跌,成交卻開始大番,我相信大戶可能將部份在低位買D貨放番出來,壓跌個市。恆指一週計算跌大約1,200左右,國指跌900多點。

之前A股因為中央出招而做好,不過上星期又傳出壞消息,譬如有重要人士給調查,所以A股都表現反覆。內地通漲問題繼續受到關注,實際上內地的高通漲主要是受到原材料價格急劇上升影響,中國的進口主要以原材料為主,所以通漲問題不容易解決。不過,我相信四月份的通漲應該能夠進一步回落,不過幅度才是重點,如果回落幅度不合乎預期的話,政府應該會再次出招。其實,A股都有好消息,不過大家對此消息反應不大,平保宣佈半年之內不會在批股集資,可以減低市場上的壓力。

內地亦都傳出電訊重組方案會出台,首先由人事變動開始,之後可能會進行資產調配,或者發3G。不過,最受惠的公司相信會是中通(552),因為不理怎樣,3G都是發展方向,所以點都有得賺,它的3G MARKET SHARE佔市場一半以上,所以優勢很大,值得留意。

美股業績不太好,相信繼續拖累股市表現,萬3點不容易站穩;A股應該繼續反覆,港股會受到兩個市場影響,現在回調會先試100天線24,700點的支持,如果再跌破,要下試250天線24,580點。

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