2009年3月4日星期三

淺談過度槓桿

金融海嘯某程度上源自過度槓桿,在過去的時間裡,多間金融機構過份運用信貸,導致信貸氾濫,最終出現了危機。很多銀行及金融機構過往將不同類型的貸款進行資本證劵化手段,然後打包賣出,資本信貸市場慢慢成為一個重要的盈利來源,銀行及金融機構紛紛參與其中,甚至連本業也忘記了是什麼。在這種情況下,全球出現了信貸氾濫、熱錢過多、流動性資金過剩的問題。

全球經濟在過往的十數年間,整體趨勢都是向好的,這某程度上可以歸咎於信貸氾濫上。但是,信貸氾濫也埋下禍根,當熱錢過多或者流動性資金過剩時,某些國家(尤其是新興市場)初期會享受到資金源源不絕流入的美好時光,但是時間久了,這些國家的資產價格會大升,形成泡沫。於是,當去年美國次按市場爆破時,整個信貸市場出現了連鎖式的爆破,影響到全球的經濟。

我深信未來數年全球經濟還要為過度槓桿造成的信貸氾濫付上沉重的代價,有部份信貸問題或許還未爆出來,因此我對全球股市、經濟還是持有相當保守的看法。

4 則留言:

hetty 說...

larry,

環顧全球,似乎黑暗沒有盡頭,但看近年中國政府在處理危機上政策走對了方向,這两年來不斷出訪非洲尋求石油戰略儲備,現在又把脚踩進美國的后花園阿根廷,最近又去德國等國家大笔購物,又致力保持房地產價格的穩定,我認為這些都將來打好了基礎,過了這一關我相信中國的明天更美好.其實長線來說,我認為現在任何時候都能買中資內银股.你認為呢?

Nate 說...

If you are thinking about China's bank stocks, I think there are 2 points that you need to look for: 1) what are the government policy and 2) Will there will be too many bad debts? Although the banks are reporting steady loan growth, I think in a recession it is not healthy. Loan growth has to be consistent with the economic activity, if it doesnt it is one dangerous sign. Moreover, the more strict and stringent regulations will play a big role as well. Due to these uncertain factors, I choose insurance stocks over banking stocks.

hetty 說...

Nate,

你說得對,美國股市己超賣又超賣,了防止随時來個絕地反彈或迴光反照,我認不能一股也沒有在手.比較之下,我個人認國企內銀股肯定不會倒閉,且離底位仍有一段距离,就算再跌,心裹還有譜,而保險股直覺估值仍高.雖然美國是太陽,全世界圍着它轉,中國內需問題多多(larry那篇內需文章分析得很全面),但看過往的歷史,無論是40年代的國共內戰,還是70年代未鄧小平的力挽狂瀾,共產党似乎總是有神明保佑或是有扭轉乾坤的能力,說不定金融海嘯能多多少少加快中國的政治改革呢.希望我對中國領遵人的信心不是盲目的.

Nate 說...

Hetty:

I agree on your point that we should have faith in China's government. However, we should not rely on the history. After the 30 years of revolution, if China wants to catch up with the United States they will need to make "structural" changes to the present government legislature. One dominant party in the legislation just doesn't work. The communism wasn't blessed or whatsoever, the 1940s world war II (precisely the WWII should had started in the 1938s) helped the economy to boost. ie) creating lots and lots of jobs. Americans got stronger and stronger, and their demand sky rocketed. When the American's enterprises could not afford the raising salaries, they thought about china, the world factory. This is why China was a success of being an exporter. However, these good old days have passed and we all have to move on. In order for China to grow, domestic demand will be needed. Larry posted opinions about the problems and issues about boosting China's domestic demand and I agree with him on an important point: Chinese do not have faith in their own brand names, they would rather trust other foreign brand names: LV, Nike, Addidas...to name a few. I think this has to be changed and that's why it is essential to put more money on education funds. Every one will be able to go to school and get educated so that civilians will have the capability to thrive at today's globalization world (as Thomas frieman put it in his book- The world is flat) Let's go back on the question of Insurance stocks vs. Bank stocks. Like I said, everyone has their own opinions and their own investment analytic are subjective. Do your homework and stock picks are not rocket science, they just require lots and lots of efforts.