2009年2月16日星期一

美國新貿易政策 或能損人利己

最近,報章不時報導美國的新貿易政策,總統奧巴馬及其幕僚曾經提出「BUY AMERICA」的言論,意思是美國往後推出的經濟措施都要把開支花費在美國各個製造業上,以支持本地的經濟為主。對此,中國尤其反對,主因是美國出口佔了中國出口的30%,而整體出口亦佔中國GDP增長37.5%;在金融海嘯下,出口本身已經身處在困境之中,假若連美國也大幅度改為買美國貨,中國出口的跌幅將會相當驚人。

歷史因素 成反對貿易保護主義主因

對此,不少人均指出美國的新貿易壁壘將會對中美兩國均造成不良影響,而且貿易壁壘並不有效,因為假若美國實行的話,其他國家均能夠提出相應的政策。再者,在過去的歷史中,美國在30年代曾經實行貿易壁壘,以救濟因經濟大蕭條而影響到的工業。在那時,其他歐洲國家見到美國實行貿易保護主義,紛紛實施相應的報復政策,引致各國經濟步入更差的環境。正正是以上原因,有部分人士相信美國這次實施貿易保護,不但救不了自己,也將會導致各國的經濟情況也不能改善,全球經濟需要更長的時間才能復原。

美國當今的出入口情況有變

不過,個人認為歷史因素未必能夠證明今次的結果,因為30年代的美國主要是以出口為主,但是現在的美國是消費型的經濟,當她實施貿易保護政策時,受損的分分鐘不是美國,而是一切以出口為主導的國家,因為當美國減少消費時,其他出口國家的經濟將會大幅度放緩,我認為就算最終結果不是好事,美國也會是最後倒下的國家。或許,中國在面對這次的貿易保護政策時,根本沒有甚麼方法去對抗。中國曾經提過可以減少購買美國國債作為對抗的政策,但是我覺得這樣並不可行,因為如果中國減少購買美國債劵,出口根本不能支持。

中美兩國現在的情況是脣齒相依,美國在經濟領域上依然維持了主導的角色。因此,我們對中國的長遠發展還要非常留神。

4 則留言:

bbanson 說...

Larry, first of all congratulations on your achievements. Your parents must be very proud of your accomplishments todate; I also applaud you on your expressed desire to help the less fortunate.
My humble opinion on the subject is as follows.
US is a great nation - warts and all. Notwithstanding its far from perfection in everything it does - Churchill says it best "The Americans ususally gets it right, after they have tried everything else", its RELATIVE transparency and free markets will enable it to recover with quickness and resiliency. In the late 80s to the early 90s, it suffered a mini crisis in the sunbelt states (in overlending in Property markets), and recovered a few years latter. Difference that round was there were little bailouts used. This round will take longer, as the wounds are deeper and wider. I am of the view the recovery (of sorts) will commence way past 2010. Conventional stock cycles and analysis simply ignores the severity and completely different nature of the sunami now. As far as China goes, as long as there are endemic corruption, the future is not optimistic, no matter how many trillions are thrown at the fire now raging. Economics 101s simply states that corruption simply ensures the misallocation of resources. Looking at the window dressing type of rescue in Szechuan, I am not as optimistic as others. I apologize for blogging in English, as I can speak / read but not that fluent in written Chinese, having been educated overseas mostly.

匿名 說...

你好嗎 我叫Louis係newspaper度認識你 想問下你對中國電企睇法 我已經買左貸 Thankyou

Larry 洪龍荃 說...

bbanson,

Thanks so much for your recognition and support! I surely agree that the global economy will take a longer period for recovery and 2010 would be an approximate year. For China, the key point is that whether it can transform the whole economy, from a exporting economy into a internal consumption economy. Although there are still many areas that require improvement, I am holding a bright view towards its future.
Thanks a lot!

Louis:
謝謝你的留言! 我認為電力企業將會繼續面對著困難的一年,但是具體情況要看看是否再有國家的支持。

匿名 說...

「因為如果中國減少購買美國債劵,出口根本不能支持」
不買美國國債,可以買黃金,還有很多其他投資工具的。